摘要
　　
　　能源是人类赖以生存的基础，是一个国家的经济命脉。中国是世界上最大的发展中国家，中国在2010年超过美国成为世界上第一能源消费大国，能源资源对中国的发展至关重要。在过去的发展中，中国经济“粗放式”增长，依靠大量消耗自然资源，能源消费状况存在不合理，能源消费效率比较低。本文计划从中国能源消费现状和能源效率的影响因素方面进行分析，探讨中国能源消费不合理方面、能源效率的影响因素以及对能源效率的影响结果，并给出能够改善中国能源消费现状和提高中国能源效率的合理性建议。
　　
　　本文首先从能源生产和消费总量、能源消费结构、不同行业的能源消费情况和能源强度方面进行了分析。分析过程主要借助Eviews做时序图，直观地反映了能源消费的现状，并运用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型，对以上分析的各方面进行了短期预测，分析了中国能源消费的短期发展趋势。其次本文利用单位GDP能耗即能源强度指标，借助R软件中的离差平方和聚类方法，对国际和国内能源效率进行了分类分析。最后利用我国27个省市（其中个别省市数据指标未能收集到，暂不做考虑）2006-2015年的面板数据，借助R软件中的面板数据回归方法，分析了产业结构、技术进步、能源价格、能源结构、固定投资水平和经济发展水平对能源效率的影响。
　　
　　研究结果主要如下：时间序列分析结果显示，中国能源供需差距仍在不断加大，能源结构不太合理，煤炭长期占能源结构的绝大比重，在不同行业的能源消费中，工业消费占比一直太大，反映出工业发展的粗放型和其他行业发展的不充分性；分类结果显示，中国能源效率较低，国内区域能源效率差距较大；面板数据回归结果显示，第二产业占比的产业结构和煤炭占比的能源结构对能源效率有负向作用，技术进步、能源价格、固定投资水平和经济发展水平对能源效率有正向作用。
　　
　　基于以上分析结果，本文给出如下几条建议：转变能源生产和消费理念，调整和优化能源消费结构，适当降低煤炭消费比重，增加对天然气和一次电力等能源消费，注重在对煤炭开发和利用中使用最新技术，重视并加大对新型能源的探索和利用；重视对我国各区域能源利用效率的整体提高，综合考虑各地区经济发展水平、产业结构和技术水平差异等因素制定相关节能减排政策；调整产业结构，注重发展第三产业，合理调整能源价格，推进能源价格的市场化改革，注重调整固定投资，以技术进步为载体，改善基础设施建设，合理调整不同区域、不同产业的固定投资水平等。
　　
　　关键词：能源消费；能源效率；ARIMA模型；面板数据。


　　
　　Abstract.
　　
　　Energy is the basis for human survival and is the economic lifeline of a country.China is theworld's largest developing country. In 2010, China surpassed the United States as the world'slargest energy consumer. Energy resources are crucial to China's development.In the pastdevelopment, the Chinese economy has grown “extensively”, relying heavily on theconsumption of natural resources, and the energy consumption situation is irrational, and theenergy consumption efficiency is relatively low.This article plans from the present situation ofenergy consumption in China and analyzed the influence factors of energy efficiency, explore theirrational aspects of China's energy consumption and the impact of energy efficiency factors onenergy efficiency, and provide information that can improve the current situation of energyconsumption and enhance the rationality of China's energy efficiency.
　　
　　The paper first analyzes the total energy production and consumption, energy consumptionstructure, energy consumption in different industries, and energy intensity.Analysis process ismainly with the aid of Eviews do the sequence diagram, intuitively reflect the current situation ofenergy consumption, and using the integral autoregressive moving average （ARIMA） model, theanalysis of the above various aspects has carried on the short-term prediction, analyses thedevelopment trend of China's energy consumption in the short term.Secondly, this paper analyzesthe international and domestic energy efficiency by using the energy intensity index of unit GDPand the method of dispersion square and clustering in R software.Finally use 27 provinces andcities in China （including individual provinces could not be collected data index, temporarilydon't consider） 2006-2015 panel data, the panel data regression method by using R software,analyzes the industrial structure, technological progress, energy prices, energy structure, fixedinvestment level and the level of economic development on the impact of higher energyefficiency.
　　
　　Research results as follows: time series analysis, according to the results of China's energysupply and demand gap continues to increase, the energy structure is not reasonable, theproportion of coal accounts for most of the energy structure for a long time, in the energyconsumption of different industries, industrial consumption than had been too big, reflectextensive industrial development and the development of other industries is not sufficient; Theresults show that China has a low energy efficiency and a large gap in energy efficiency. Paneldata regression, according to the results of the second industry of the industrial structure and theproportion of coal energy structure has negative effect on energy efficiency, technology progress,energy prices, fixed investment level and the level of economic development has positive effecton energy efficiency.
　　
　　Based on the above analysis, this paper presents a few Suggestions as follows:
　　
　　transformation of energy production and consumption idea, adjust and optimize the energyconsumption structure, appropriate to reduce the coal consumption, increase of natural gas andenergy consumption, such as a power, pay attention to in the development and utilization of coalusing the latest technology, attaching importance to and strengthen the exploration and use ofnew energy; We should attach importance to the overall improvement of energy utilizationefficiency in various regions of China, take into account the economic development level,industrial structure and technological level differences of various regions, and formulate relevantpolicies on energy conservation and emission reduction. Adjust the industrial structure, payattention to the development of the third industry, reasonable adjustment of energy prices,promote the reform of the marketization of energy prices, pay attention to adjust the fixedinvestment, to technological progress as a carrier, to improve infrastructure construction,reasonable adjustment for different regions, different industries of fixed investment levels, etc.
　　
　　Key words:Energy Consumption; Energy Efficiency; ARIMA Models; Panel Data.